Vertical 2 of 3 · 2027 options

The Cairn Project

Fundraising recovered — 2025 doubled 2024, and 2026 is tracking past it. What has not recovered is the operating model underneath. Roxy's departure removed a person; it also removed the pretence that we had a structure.

Where it stands

Actual (Classy gross) Projected full year
First 50k net
$16,643
Ambassadors
15
Individual donors
251
Trailblazer umbrella, projected
~$44k
The structural facts the board should hold: First 50k was stood up by Angie in two weeks over a holiday and netted $16.6k. That is the proof the flagship model works. It is also the proof that we have no operating model — a repeatable $20k campaign should not depend on one person improvising over Christmas.

Four options for 2027

A · Build the flagship-campaign factory Recommended

Three or four ambassador-driven campaigns a year at roughly $20k each, run off one repeatable playbook: recruitment, fundraising page, content calendar, post-event on-ramp. First 50k and Rim-to-Rim are the proven two; Cactus to Clouds is the obvious third. The economics are close to linear — more ambassadors, not more staff.

Revenue $60–80kCost ~$12k build + coordinationDepends on a named operational owner

B · Re-cohortize Trailblazers Fix

Rolling enrollment killed both the community and the deadline-driven marketing that used to power it. Move back to dated cohorts with a real application window. The June analysis flagged "keep as-is and AI will help" as hopeful rather than strategic — this is the decision that was deferred.

Revenue +$10–15kCost process rebuildPrerequisite success metrics defined first

C · Settle Grit Lit — wind down or automate Decide

The June tracker committed to finalizing a wind-down; a Q3 letter was drafted anyway. Two coherent paths: close it cleanly and redeploy the effort, or rebuild production and fulfilment so it costs almost nothing to run. What is not coherent is the current middle.

Either way a decision, not a driftAutomated option ~$6k buildBlocked on subscriber list + entity question

D · Give Angie a path and a comp signal Enabler

Not a program option — a retention one, and the June analysis named her the single highest retention risk on the team and the long-term candidate to run this vertical. Option A does not happen without an operational owner, and she is the only realistic one.

Cost $12–18k incrementalRisk if skipped flagship model has no owner
My read A and D together, or neither
The flagship factory is the best revenue-per-effort lever we have, and it is the one thing on this page that compounds. But it is an operating commitment, not a campaign, and pairing it with D is what makes it real. C needs a yes-or-no on Saturday regardless of the rest — it has been drifting since June and drifting is costing us the thing we would redeploy.
The Cairn Project's money problem is solved for now. Its owner problem is not. Option A is the ask; option D is the condition.